What if there is a second Korean War?

I think the scenario is very real. Consider the two Koreans constantly provoke each other.
Just a few days ago, two Korean warships fired a few shells at each other (although none was hit).
http://news.yahoo.com/koreas-exchange-fire-near-disputed-sea-boundary-120749771.html

So what if another Korean War broke out?
What will happen?
Lets say
1. What if nobody interferes?
I believe South Korea will prevail due to much better equipments and training as well as an ecnomoy 10x the size of the North's. But not before North Korean's artillery make a ruin of Seoul and other cities near the 38th parallel.
2. What if there is outside intervene?
Lets say what if the US helps South. Will China sit by and watch or will they aid NK like they did in the first Korean War? Back in the 1950, China did what they had to do because the US aided Chinese nationalists in the Chinese civil war which just ended in 1949. They saw the US as hostile to them, and they believe the U.S. would continue to push cross the border once NK was finished.
So if the US and China both intervene again, what will the outcome be? Another localized war kept under control, or will it turn into a WWIII?

 

I think China has too much to lose by going to war with the United States. It would be Mutually Assured Economic Destruction. I think if North and South Korea went to war the United States would probably get drawn in and the end result would be South Korea annexing North Korea.

 

It is not the question of if China know the consequences of if they are involved in the war.

Yes, I agree that it is almost certain that the U.S. troops stationed in South Korea will be involved in if a second Korean war is started. That will be almost certain that the U.S. will be forced to "protect" the troops stated there, and that means the U.S. will be committing full effort in the war.

Giving the recent events about how the US is pitting China's neighbors against China in various disputes, I do not believe China will allow another pro-US country to sit right on its border...not to mention all the American troops stationed there. It means more than likely China will once again involved too.

The fact is, both China and the US would try to avoid a nuclear war which will result in no winner. However, we can't be certain that one or both of them will not miscalculate the situation and underestimate the other side's will. It is possible one or both sides might think the other side will try to limit the war at conventional...

however, what if one or more American aircraft carriers are sunk? What if one or more Chinese supply base or communication/command centers in China are bombed? Both sides can snap any time if that happens...

There is another worry... the U.S. has been trying to build the "missile shield" in hope of intercept nuclear missiles. What if the US government believe the shield is capable of defeat the counter-attack? Won't it make the US not to think twice about using nukes?

 

The "lasting peace" is only from the American perspective... and even that is from the public perspective who actually believe the US government will stop there or pulling out of Korea after it is united. Since the U.S. government is against China in every move on every turn (look at how the US government is taking side with everyone who has a dispute with China, and how the US government is supporting every group and everyone who is against China), there will be no peace once the US is able to establish military bases in North Korea near Chinese border.

The Chinese do not trust the Americans with good reasons. The next thing they will worry might be if South Korea (after united with north Korea) started to claim some "historical Korean territory" in China, and the US will for sure back Korea in the dispute immediately if it happens. (There are millions ethnic Koreans living in Northern China whose early families fled from Japanese occupation).

Look at what happened after US invasion of Afghanistan, the Chinese moved a whole army group of over 100,000 men to the border with Afghanistan along with several air groups of their newest fighter jets. Coincidentally, the amount of terrorist attacks in the province borders Afghanistan has gone way up since the US occupation of Afghanistan. Oh, the US government supports the separate group of Uighur minorities in the area.

 

I think if there was a second Korean War, North Korea would end up being annexed, they have made far too many rivalries throughout the years and I don't think any of their allies is willing to risk their neck for them, I doubt China or Russia would risk a World War just to save North Korea...

 

What about Georgia and Ukraine? Russia didn't think twice to defend its interest in the region when NATO continue to push eastward.
If North Korea is taken over by the US, I don't think Russia will sit and do nothing about it.

In my opinion, neither China nor Russia will do anything before the US is involved. So it is really up to the US how the events will turn out. I believe the US government will not back down just to show they keep the promises to their allies. After all, there are 38,000 American troops in South Korea right now, so it is quite different from Georgia and Ukraine.

 

I don't think the US would actively attack North Korea unless North Korea attacked first, whether they attack the US or South Korea.
I think I can apply that to China and Russia as well, the US isn't going on the offensive unless provoked, the global consequences are just too significant, no one wants to be responsible for that, neither Obama nor whoever wins the next elections.

 

Sorry I do not share the same opinion. The U.S. will not jump in without some kind of "reason" for sure. Just like in Vietnam, Iraq, Panama, Yugoslavia, etc. If the U.S. government thinks its military can take out North Korea without much effort, then it will make up some kind of reasons to attack. Although this scenario under current situation (NK has nukes) is less likely than what have happened in Libya. That is, if given the chance, CIA will sponsor a coup or rebelling in NK, then go in directly if the coup/rebelling can't win on its own... of course in the name of saving the civilians.

However, my personal opinion is the most likely scenario would be some kind of incident went out of control... if both North and South refuse to back down, there will be a war. When this happens, the US troops stationed in South Korea will be more than likely be involved, and they will get reinforcement from outside South Korea for sure.

 

It is an interesting and, obviously, somewhat disturbing question. The North Koreans now have a limited number of atomic devices. They may be incredibly crude, but an atomic bomb, even a crummy one, can do a lot of damage. They also have one of the largest stockpiles of chemical weapons in the world.

If China stays out of it, there is a chance the allied forces (ROK, the US, and maybe Japan) could contain the invasion and repulse it. If China does get involved, that could indeed lead to World War III. Both sides have atomic weapons and once touched off there would be reason for a retaliatory strike. The US can deliver the H-bomb wherever and the Chinese can most certainly deliver said anywhere in that theater of operations. The fallout, both literal and figurative, in the region would be dramatic.

Here's hoping it doesn't come to that. Because if it does, the peninsula would be turned into a charnel house.

 

Both China and the US have hydrogen bombs. Both countries have the ability to deliver them anywhere in the world either from intercontinental missiles or from strategic submarines. Both sides have the ability to destroy each other or most part of each other. I hope it won't ever come to WWIII or MAD.

Although Fat Kim of North Korea is no saint, I don't think he is crazy enough to get himself killed either. But he just want to look strong in front of his people, and dictators are always counting on look strong to "legit" rule their countries. So in case of an incident, Kim will definitely be the last one to back down. He probably is also counting on China and Russia will support his regime in case of a full invasion of United States. If he miscalculated, he and his regime will be taken out...however not before South Korea, Japan and US bases in nearby regions get hit by those third rate atom bombs.

 

China supports North Korea because they're an excellent mad dog on a leash. Any time you feel overly threatened, loosen the leash some. Having control over the Kim dynasty means that they have another card in their hand at the poker table that is international diplomacy. Still, if the dog gets off the leash, China probably won't object to having it put down.

 

That's a good definition on China sees North Korea I think avbodder, but at the same time I don't expect that a war is going to happen anytime soon, this is just a game of interests and no one has real interest in this war.

 

They're permanently at war, they haven't signed an armistice since their separation!
If a war started between these two already-tensioned governments, then the WW3 would surely come as "collateral damage". It would be a war between democracy, with the USA, South Korea and most of the European countries by its side, and communism, with Russia, China, North Korea and whatever's left out of the communism throughout the world. Even though democracy's allies are more, we shouldn't disconsider the fact that the North Korea and China's armies combined have got permanently-available troops of more than a few dozens of millions, whilst deploying most of the Europe's armies would take a while, a good one, in fact.
When talking about who would have more chances, then I'd say the democracy's side would win because the USA's army has got so much money invested in that it overwhelms all the armies around the world, and the communists' armies are rather primitive. Imagine North Korea going with spears to war and the USA coming with drones... it's just common sense that the USA will win.

 

I doubt this would happen but if it did it would get the nosy Chinese involved for sure. They want to conserve communism in North Korea. South Korea would never be the aggressor though. If war happens it would be instigated by the north. I don't think China will get to heavily involved because world opinion against North Korea is so negative. So any war would be quickly thwarted with a North Korean loss.

 

The first Korean War would have to end for there to be a second. The day may come when China (laughingly called "Communist" these days) will no longer tolerate North Korea. China is rapidly becoming democratic and cannot be called Communist by any stretch of the imagination. Even under Mao they really didn't have a lot of fondness for North Korea. Mao was a genuine communist revolutionary, unlike the Kim family, who have established a monarchy, a term they avoid. Communists refer to a "cult of personality".

 

All depends on China. Will they protect their poverty stricken neighbor to the south or will they let the world handle them? If it were not for China I think South Korea, aided by the West would have put a stop to what is basically a dictatorship in North Korea.

 

North Korea is not on the southern side of China.
It is more like on the east side.

South Korea itself was a dictatorship to begin with. A few years ago the news report said that mass grave were found in South Korea where over 100,000 civilians were massacred by South Korean government before the Korean War for being "communist sympathizers". Some bodies are as young as toddlers. It wasn't until late 1980s they started to have elections. So the whole Korean War had nothing to do with "dictatorship" or "freedom". It was simply a proxy war between the US and USSR. North Korea also had higher GDP than South Korea until late 1960s despite the fact all of their cities and towns were reduced to ashes by US bombers.

 

This is one of the key things to consider when talking about the endless dispute between South and North Korea. As I see it, in the past it was much easier for a proxy war to happen. So many of the conflicts after WWII can be seen as parts of a single, bigger conflict between the two blocs. I don't see that happening that often, nor that openly, now. Yes, it still happens on a smaller scale (especially in Syria), but now economic considerations seem to trump military ones. There are too many economic interests at play, each side keeps having an array of allies which are supported with weapons, but the real wars are fought with economic treaties, sanctions, and UN deliberations.

Take the Ukrainian conflict. 30 years ago that would have turned immediately in a real proxy war. I know Ukraine didn't exist back then, but I mean that kind of situation, in Europe, a big country trying to free itself from Russian influence, with incredibly important gas lines running from Russia to Western Europe. Some time ago that situation would have been faced more aggressively by all sides. Now it's just some sanctions, condemnations, diplomacy and indecisiveness.

So I tend to think China wouldn't intervene (openly), and neither would the other powers. They all made far too many efforts at building an economic area of influence, and those delicate balances will be disturbed only in the most extreme situations.

 

There have been so many standoffs and incidents in the region, most of which we don't even here about in the news. It seems like it is in the best interests of both countries to continue to respect the DMZ. Even with all the recent tension in previous years, nothing major has happened. And as Thomas stated the first war is still currently "active" in technical terms so it would just be a continuation after many, many years of stalled negotiations. I won't say "peace" because the situation in DPRK/N Korea seems dire.